Election Pendulum — 2012 Queensland State Election Results

I have compiled a preliminary pendulum for the recent Queensland state election; I have no idea what this will look like until I hit “post”! Suffice to say, I’m still learning the functionalities of WordPress after a year of blogging; all I know is that the Excel and Word versions I have of this on my computer look different to this…

Now most electorates in Queensland have been declared, I will be posting analysis of the overall outcome of the election this weekend.

In the meantime, the “table” below ranks the 89 electorates in the Queensland Parliament in decreasing order of their support for the LNP on a two-party basis.

Swings shown are to the LNP and are based on the 2009 results in each seat.

 

DISTRICT MEMBER MARGIN SWING NOTES
LNP SEATS (78)

1

SOUTHERN DOWNS Lawrence Springborg

30.9

9.9

2

WARREGO Howard Hobbs

30.1

8.3

3

SURFERS PARADISE John-Paul Langbroek

29.2

12.1

4

GYMPIE David Gibson

27.3

0.4

5

NOOSA Glen Elmes

27.1

7.1

6

GREGORY Vaughan Johnson

26.9

12.6

7

KAWANA Jarrod Bleijie

26.5

19.5

8

MERMAID BEACH Ray Stevens

26.4

17.1

9

MUDGEERABA Ros Bates

25.4

21.3

10

CALLIDE Jeff Seeney

25.3

5.2

11

MOGGILL Bruce Flegg

23.9

12.4

12

COOMERA Michael Crandon

23.6

21.5

13

LOCKYER Ian Rickuss

22.2

14.5

14

ASPLEY Tracey Davis

21.6

16.9

15

TOOWOOMBA SOUTH John McVeigh+

21.5

13.7

16

CLAYFIELD Tim Nicholls

21.4

14.7

17

REDLANDS Peter Dowling

20.9

20.6

18

HERVEY BAY Ted Sorensen

20.9

14.9

19

HINCHINBROOK Andrew Cripps

20.7

5.2

20

CALOUNDRA Mark McArdle

20.7

14.6

21

MAROOCHYDORE Fiona Simpson

20.3

7.2

22

GLASS HOUSE Andrew Powell

20.3

14.5

23

CURRUMBIN Jann Stuckey

19.6

12.9

24

INDOOROOPILLY Scott Emerson

19.4

13.8

25

GAVEN Alex Douglas

19.3

18.6

26

CLEVELAND Mark Robinson

18.1

17.7

27

BURDEKIN Rosemary Menkens

17.2

13.7

28

BUNDABERG Jack Dempsey

16.9

10.8

29

BARRON RIVER Michael Trout*

16.6

19.1

2PP vs KAP

30

MOUNT OMMANEY Tarnya Smith*

16.3

20.9

31

BUDERIM Steve Dickson

16.2

2.5

32

SPRINGWOOD John Grant*

15.7

19.7

33

SOUTHPORT Rob Molhoek*

14.8

18.3

34

CHATSWORTH Steve Minnikin*

14.2

14.2

35

CONDAMINE Ray Hopper

13.9

no swing

2PP vs KAP

36

PINE RIVERS Seath Holswich*

13.8

18.2

37

EVERTON Tim Mander*

12.9

14.2

38

KALLANGUR Trevor Ruthenberg*

12.7

17.1

39

PUMICESTONE Lisa France*

12.3

17.2

40

ALBERT Mark Boothman*

12.1

18.6

41

MANSFIELD Ian Walker*

11.4

15.4

42

BURLEIGH Michael Hart*

11.3

16.1

43

MIRANI Ted Malone

10.7

9.9

44

BROADWATER Verity Barton*

10.6

12.5

45

MUNDINGBURRA David Crisafulli*

10.3

16.5

46

SUNNYBANK Mark Stewart*

10.2

20.8

47

WHITSUNDAY Jason Costigan*

10.1

13

48

REDCLIFFE Scott Driscoll*

10.1

15.4

49

MURRUMBA Reg Gulley*

9.8

16.8

50

BURNETT Stephen Bennett*

9.8

-2.2

2PP vs IND

51

BEAUDESERT Jon Krause+

9.5

1.1

2PP vs KAP

52

FERNY GROVE Dale Shuttleworth*

9.4

13.6

53

ALGESTER Anthony Shorten*

9.4

18.3

54

TOOWOOMBA NORTH Trevor Watts*

9.2

12.4

55

STRETTON Freya Ostapovitch*

8.9

18.3

56

NANANGO Deb Frecklington*

8.3

9.6

2PP vs KAP

57

IPSWICH WEST Sean Choat*

7.5

16.7

58

STAFFORD Chris Davis*

7.5

14.6

59

CAIRNS Gavin King*

6.9

11.1

60

ASHGROVE Campbell Newman*

6.4

13.6

61

MORAYFIELD Darren Grimwade*

5.8

14.8

62

KEPPEL Bruce Young*

5.7

13.1

63

MOUNT COOT-THA Saxon Rice*

4.9

10.1

64

TOWNSVILLE John Hathaway*

4.6

8.7

65

IPSWICH Ian Berry*

4.4

20.9

66

LOGAN Michael Pucci*

4.1

18.1

67

BRISBANE CENTRAL Rob Cavalucci*

3.9

10.2

68

COOK David Kempton*

3.7

6.1

69

CAPALABA Steve Davies*

3.6

13.3

70

SANDGATE Kerry Millard*

3.5

15.7

71

NUDGEE Jason Woodforth*

3.4

17.6

72

GREENSLOPES Ian Kaye*

1.9

9.2

73

YEERONGPILLY Carl Judge*

1.5

10.1

74

THURINGOWA Sam Cox*

1.4

9.9

2PP vs KAP

75

LYTTON Neil Symes*

1.1

13.1

76

WATERFORD Mike Latter*

1.1

17.2

77

MARYBOROUGH Anne Maddern*

0.4

17.9

2PP vs IND

78

BULIMBA Aaron Dillaway*

0.1

7.5

ALP SEATS (7)

79

MACKAY Tim Mulherin

0.5

16.2

80

MULGRAVE Curtis Pitt

1.5

7.1

81

BUNDAMBA Jo-Ann Miller

2.2

19.2

82

ROCKHAMPTON Bill Byrne+

4.9

13.2

83

WOODRIDGE Desley Scott

5.5

20.2

84

SOUTH BRISBANE Anna Bligh

5.6

9.8

85

INALA Annastacia Palaszczuk

7.2

14.3

KAP SEATS

86

DALRYMPLE Shane Knuth

15.7

2PP vs LNP

87

MOUNT ISA Rob Katter

10.9

2PP vs ALP
INDEPENDENTS

88

GLADSTONE Liz Cunningham

13.7

2PP vs ALP

89

NICKLIN Peter Wellington

5.7

2PP vs LNP

Queensland State Election: Editorial, The Day Before

Queenslanders go to the polls tomorrow, in an historic election set to terminate that state’s 14-year-old Labor government and sweep Campbell Newman’s LNP to office in a landslide. Today I provide an endorsement, and state my reasons for doing so.

Tomorrow’s election comes at the end of a truly remarkable campaign; an incumbent ALP government is looking for a sixth term in office for the first time since the 1940s, whereas the conservative LNP is seeking to win office via the unorthodox avenue of a leader currently outside Parliament and contesting a reasonably-held ALP electorate.

The endless election campaign is finally over, after what is, and seems, like months — one of the dirtiest, nastiest and downright dishonest campaigns waged by a governing party against its opponents in Australian political history, be it in Queensland or anywhere else.

The baseless and viciously personal attacks on LNP leader Campbell Newman and his wife, Lisa, are evidence enough of themselves that the ALP is no longer fit to govern Queensland.

The admission by Premier Anna Bligh that these attacks were without any kind of corroborating evidence is an admission of culpability, compounded by the fact she sought initially to continue this outrageous campaign against the Newmans, and then — as the cold reality of impending doom hit — to beg for forgiveness and for Queenslanders to elect additional Labor MPs to curtail the power of the incoming LNP government.

I should point out that Queenslanders showed no such restraint in 1974, when they determined to give full vent to their fury toward the federal government of Gough Whitlam at the expense of Perc Tucker’s state Labor Party; similarly, they showed no such restraint in 2001, when this government under Peter Beattie scored such a landslide win that it took three terms for the conservatives simply to be competitive in 2009.

In both 1974 and 2001, it is fair to say the results went the way they should have, and tomorrow’s poll will be no different.

To be fair, whilst this column has been scathing of the tactics employed by the ALP at this election, the LNP is not entirely free from criticism; the party’s woes over preselecting no fewer than three candidates for an electorate that should be a lay-down misere in Broadwater — the most recent of which occurred just three weeks ago — is suggestive the LNP still has some work to do in fine-tuning its internal processes and motions.

And whilst Campbell Newman would appear to have ultimately survived — if not benefited heftily — from the wild accusations and smear thrown his way, his initial handling of these campaign matters (storming out of press conferences and so forth) was not a good look.

Even so, the sideshow that has been the local electorate campaign in Ashgrove — whilst not in any way doubting the personal integrity or devotion of the Labor member, Kate Jones — is further evidence if any were required that the current ALP administration has reached the end of its useful life.

“Keep Kate” is a byword for everything wrong with the Labor campaign; devoid of any ALP branding, this focus on Jones as a first-name entity in a bid to deny Newman entry to Parliament and thus the Premiership was always destined to end in tears.

Jones is well and truly within the margin of what all reputable polling suggests will be an enormous swing against Labor; her seat — on a 7% margin — would need to defy trends by nearly five percentage points, an unlikely ask indeed.

And the simple fact Labor went down the “Keep Kate” path at all is painfully indicative of the wrong election strategy, an uber-high risk strategy at that, and one which has now detonated in the face of Anna Bligh and her enthusiastic colleague in Ashgrove.

Could the LNP have found a better seat for Newman to contest? It’s a moot point now, but will the same silly scenario be played out in 2015 as it has been now? Time alone will tell.

It is well known that I had and have my reservations about the LNP; however, the factor which ameliorates those concerns to a great extent is that the party is now led by a Liberal from Brisbane, and not a farmer from west of the Divide.

It is no accident that the only state election the conservatives have been within cooee of winning in the past 25 years — 1995 — was one at which it was led by an urbane, urban National who could as easily have found a home in the Liberal Party — Rob Borbidge.

Queensland has changed; since the departure of Joh Bjelke-Petersen from the executive building in 1987, the process of growth in the south-east and urbanisation overall which began during his Premiership has meant that good candidates from the rural districts are simply no longer relevant to an increasing majority of Queenslanders when it comes to leadership options.

And as Queensland has changed, its government has changed; history may treat Anna Bligh more favourably than her contemporaries will, but her time to go, so to speak, has arrived.

Diehard Labor types may bleat about the likes of Clive Palmer and his interests; they would do well to reflect that Palmer is one man, whereas the ALP — armed and funded by a highly-organised trade union movement numbering in the tens of thousands — also has interests to pursue, and the interests of the trade union movement are increasingly counter to those of the populace at large.

And the LNP arrives at the threshold of government with exciting new ideas that deserve to be tested and pursued; the “Can Do” ethos of Newman’s administration at the Brisbane City Council serves as a pointer to the energy and drive that will shortly be invested in refloating the grounded ship that is the state of Queensland.

And I would remind all readers, how so ever they vote, that there will be another election in 2015, and that will be the time to re-elect the LNP, or to switch to someone else if the new government does not prove to be a success in the eyes of the majority.

Tomorrow will be a bad day for the Labor Party; yet that party should look to the performances of its brethren in NSW in 1991, SA in 1997 and federally in 1998 to take heart at what can be possible in a short period of time after enduring the seemingly worst of electoral defeats.

Yet defeat must it suffer; for just as Queensland Labor has  for now nothing meaningful to further contribute to governance in Queensland, it follows that the painful years of opposition will afford it the chance to regenerate, to find its next generation of leaders, and to one day stand as a credible alternative government against the LNP.

A wider view of the world also suggests that it is in the national interest for a change of government to occur in Queensland tomorrow; in difficult economic times, a state such as Queensland should be the engine room of the national economy, not the debt-addled pauper it is and the drain on the commonwealth it has become under the Labor Party’s leadership.

Unlike many, I do not see tomorrow’s election as a referendum on the conduct of the federal ALP in office; but I would hasten to add that the defeat Bligh’s government seems certain to suffer will be greater as a result of the Gillard-Rudd legacy than it otherwise might have been.

For reasons of integrity and responsible government, for the greater good of both Queensland and Australia generally, and on account of the simple fact that Queensland now requires fundamental change to the way it does things if it is to again become the envy of the rest of the country, The Red And The Blue endorses the LNP in tomorrow’s election, and recommends all Queenslanders to cast a vote for Campbell Newman and his team to form the next state government of Queensland.

 

Queensland Election: It’s The Lie That Gets You

In August 1974 — confronted with the choice between resignation from office or certain impeachment and conviction over the Watergate scandal — US President Richard Nixon drily remarked to an aide that it’s not the cover-up, but the lie; it’s the lie that gets you.

And so it is in Queensland, in the final days of Labor administration, with Anna Bligh’s government now thrashing around in its death throes.

Readers of this column will recall, in an article last week, on the pending state election in Queensland, that I said this of the modus operandi of the modern ALP:

“(Standard) ALP campaign tactics in the 21st century… are simple: get the story straight, then repeat it as often and as widely as possible; talk about nothing else; engineer a situation where the guilt of the smeared is the default position; and don’t let go until you’ve destroyed someone — and the less factual the basis on which they are destroyed, the better.”

After many months of throwing mud at LNP leader Campbell Newman — scurrilous accusations, twice investigated by the CMC, and twice with the result that Newman had no case to answer — Anna Bligh let the cat out of the bag on Tuesday with her admission that all she “had” were “questions” for Campbell Newman, and no “answers.”

That’s it. No proof, no evidence, nothing whatsoever. Just the same pile of dirty accusations that has been endlessly recycled since last year in a desperate attempt to smear Newman, an attempt which — if recent polling in the seat of Ashgrove is any indication — had hurt Newman’s prospects, even if the landslide victory by the LNP were still on track to occur.

Bligh’s admission that the Labor campaign is essentially built on a false premise surely puts the final nail into Queensland Labor’s coffin and represents the final, devastating blow to her credibility.

And yet today, wait! There’s more! Bligh says she has new documents showing another link between Campbell Newman and a developer who is one of his biggest political donors, and claiming it is “evidence” of “dodgy deals.”

Here’s the rub: in either the greatest act of political desperation seen in this country in decades, or in an appalling display of ignorance of the way business operates, Bligh’s “evidence” is essentially that a business is one of some 300 registered at an accountancy firm.

Hell, my own accountant has 230 companies registered at his office; one is mine, but I have no idea as to who the other 229 are, and if I have any “link” to any of them, it is pure coincidence.

It’s probable that the same is true in this case.

It has also come to light in the past couple of days that the CMC are once again looking into the matters alleged by the ALP, and that in itself does not constitute automatic guilt or wrongdoing on the part of Campbell Newman.

Indeed, whilst I would never attempt to pre-empt such an inquiry, I would make the point that these matters have been subject to CMC scrutiny twice now, and Newman cleared on both occasions. And the CMC may well find the same way for the third time.

Yet in any case, that succinct description I gave of Labor strategy is still being played out: they won’t let go, and the object is to completely destroy Newman, no matter how baseless the pretext or how frivolous or vexatious the allegation.

All of this raises a deeper and more sinister question: at what point can the kind of tactics deployed by the Queensland ALP against Campbell Newman be legitimately regarded as an attempt to rig an election?

After all — and especially if Newman is cleared by the CMC for a third time — it’s clear that the Labor politics used in the current campaign have been of the basest type: scandalously defamatory, devoid of a scrap of truth, and entirely innocent of any reasonable standard of ethical conduct.

Newman himself has said that he could probably sue the ALP but that he’s not “a sook;” indeed, as I have opined previously, even if Newman were justified in instituting legal proceedings against Labor, the ricochet effect of that at this point in the electoral cycle would likely rebound on him as well.

This is a tired government that has run its course; after 14 years in office, and 20 of the past 22, it is politically and ethically bankrupt, has a chequered record indeed, and leaves behind colossal levels of state debt, and billions of dollars in infrastructure spending that has simply been kicked down the road despite record state revenues and GST receipts — the so-called GFC notwithstanding.

It’s clear that there is very little by way of a constructive case Labor could have credibly placed before the electorate as it seeks re-election; on the other hand, the campaign Labor has run has been despicable.

Is it possible to rig an election based on a lie? Perhaps the eventual result in the seat of Ashgrove will provide an answer. Certainly, the LNP remains on track to belt Labor on a statewide basis, but — as I have said more than once — the sole real objective of this campaign appears to simply be to keep Newman out of Parliament.

And that would be a Pyrrhic victory indeed.

I have said to a few people that there was always a way the ALP could deal itself into this election campaign with a real chance of victory; readers will be unsurprised that I omit most of the details, given my political inclinations, but to abandon Kate Jones in Ashgrove…(bit in the middle omitted 🙂     )…with a view to marooning Newman as Leader of the Opposition would have been a far smarter strategy than embarking on a dirt avalanche and peddling defamatory allegations entirely unfounded. It could have even led to the unlikeliest of election wins.

Even though it is now too late, I have no intention of spelling out the finer details. The ALP will have many wounds to lick after the shellacking it now confronts. The revelation that the Labor campaign is baseless will drive wavering and undecided voters into the LNP column — and it’s more likely than not that many of those will be in Ashgrove; the very people for whose “benefit” this entire charade was staged in the first place.

Returning to my opening paragraph, the analogy of a cover-up might or might not be appropriate on this occasion. But the words of Nixon certainly apply to the Queensland Labor Party of 2012: it’s the lie that gets you.

And next weekend, that is precisely what will happen.

What do you think?