FOR THOSE who are interested in things psephological, this short post is purely to share some information from the ABC’s election genius, Antony Green, who has published quite a detailed analysis of the draft boundaries published by the NSW Electoral Districts Commission for the 2015 election.
You can access a link to Antony’s page here.
Just as few observations on key points, as I see them:
The number of lower house seats is unchanged at 93, although seven seats on the old boundaries have been abolished and replaced.
Rural NSW loses a seat overall, which reappears in suburban Sydney.
Former Premier Nathan Rees’ seat of Toongabbie has been abolished, and replaced with a safe-ish Liberal electorate (on paper) of Seven Hills.
A new inner-city seat of Newtown appears to give the Greens an excellent prospect to pick up a second seat at the next election.
The effect of these draft boundary changes is to notionally alter the state of the parties, thus: Liberal Party 53 seats (+2); National Party 18* (unch); ALP 18 (-2); Greens 2 (+1); “Others” 2 (-1).
The result of this redraw of the boundaries is that the Coalition now controls, on paper, a notional 71 of the 93 lower house seats; my comment is that such a tally would seem more in line with the 65% two-party preferred result it scored at the 2011 election than the 69 seats it won on the night.
And interestingly, this redistribution sees the National Party draw level with the ALP in terms of numbers of seats; if this is replicated at the 2015 election — and assuming the Liberals and Nationals remain in coalition, which would seem a foregone conclusion — Labor would face the absurd situation of being outnumbered by the junior Coalition partner on the floor of the Legislative Assembly.
Anyhow, for those who like to crunch the numbers and pore over the minutiae — enjoy!
The Commission will gazette finalised boundaries toward the end of 2013.
*Includes the National Party’s by-election win in Northern Tablelands, which it won back following the disgraced resignation of Independent MP Richard Torbay.