Video Comment: The State Of Play Heading Into Polling Day

HEADING TOWARD polling day tomorrow, this evening we are doing things a little differently; following the endorsement provided for the Coalition in this column this morning, tonight’s “article” is in video format: talking about the likely movement from state to state, and providing an estimate of the likely overall result. This is the first time we have used a video format in this column, and reader feedback is welcome.

Despite the fact I’m still not 100% recovered, I made good on my threat this afternoon to record a video comment to discuss the state-by-state movements I expect to see tomorrow; do excuse the fact I’m still coughing, and please excuse the excessive “ums” and “ahs:” as often as not, these are merely to try to ward off the coughing fits that the latest “import” from my son’s day care centre has been inflicting.

This is an experimental post for this column; it is hard to believe that five years since I started publishing content here, this is a format that hasn’t been used to date.

As such, the amateur nature of the production is evident: whilst I have access to media production partners for a fee, the rest of the time I’m just another private publisher of comment, and in this case, it probably shows.

I’ve tried to keep this fairly light — eschewing too much fine detail, such as digging into the minutiae of dozens of individual seats — but of course those readers who want to go down that track should feel quite free to do so.

I will be posting further opinion (of the written variety) either overnight or tomorrow morning, but in the meantime, any comments on this sally into video commentary would be most welcome.

One day to go — and the attached video also includes my tip for the outcome.

 

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5 thoughts on “Video Comment: The State Of Play Heading Into Polling Day

  1. Labor gain from Liberal: Petrie, Longman, Capricornia, Flynn, Page, E-M, Macarhtur, Solomon, Burt.
    Labor notional retain: Barton, Paterson.

    Labor loss to Greens: Batman

    Labor loss to Liberal: Dobell, Greenway and two Victorian seats

    LNP notional retain: Fairfax

    LNP loss to NXT: Mayo and one more (Barker?)

    Liberal loss to National: Murray

    Independent loss to National: Indi

    LNP 82, Labor 64, Green 2, NXT 2, Wilkie, Katter

    There are some line ball seats that I think the LNP hold – all three Tassie seats, Dobell, Banks and Forde. That said I have marked Petrie, Macarthur and Longman as Labor but they are line ball as well.

    Also on WA I just feel the last week has cost Shorten any chance to overcome the large margins. But i have no local knowledge so really am making an educated guess.

    Victoria – If I had to guess Chisholm and Bendigo, but it could be McEwan or Bruce.

    SA – nothing would surprise me in SA due to preference flow so I am guessing. Could even a Labor seat like Wakefield go to NXT???

    Lastly – my roughie is Hinkler. This is a three way showdown and dependent on preference flow. It is hard to see the LNP losing, but I am hearing strange things about the mood on prepoll. I don’t have it in my list but it is worth watching.

  2. You make no mention that calling a double senate election was an act of stupidity. The independents have increased their numbers, Jackie Lambie, Derryn Hinch, etc mathematically guaranteed a better chance by the double senate election. Libs will not have have a majority at a joint sitting of parliament, which was supposedly that whole point in the first place.

    • Actually Roger, that argument was exhaustively made during the year in other articles published in this site. In any case, the train wreck I warned about in the Senate is now likely to materialise.

      Derryn Hinch is immune to this criticism as I believe he has much to add as an independent voice, but the rest of the new or newly-confirmed entities in the Senate — Lambie, Hanson et al — are no better than an infestation of vermin that will further eat away at the fabric of sound governance.

  3. Yale, like the video, sound level could be higher. Like the rugrats in the background.

    Can the argument be made that Labor would be ahead in seats except for the CFA dispute? This article discusses –
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/jul/04/firefighters-dispute-isnt-to-blame-for-labors-subpar-result-in-victoria-the-inner-city-is
    Not sure I agree with the conclusion that the dispute didn’t have a big effect. The vote count is so tight every seat matters. Chisolm, Corangamite and Deakin have been held by the Libs but could have been lost.
    I think it can be said Dan Andrew and the CFA dispute cost Labor this election.

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