…and I’ll start by simply looking at the state of the nation and recognising that the Labor Party is on the nose…everywhere…
…except in Tasmania, where it’s possible to win 31% of the vote and still form government. So much for proportional representation being fairer than preferential voting, or first past the post.
Let’s look around: in NSW, the ALP has recently suffered one of the greatest electoral smashings in Australian political history. It isn’t difficult to see where Labor’s stocks are at there.
In Victoria, the narrow loss at last year’s election masks a big 6.5% swing; a clear indication of the mood for change, and on redistributed boundaries (which are now due) would have been much clearer in terms of seats.
In Queensland, a smashing is three terms overdue for Labor — twice previously, they have found a way to escape; what impact will Anna Bligh’s flood boost have? And will Campbell Newman be the circuit breaker the LNP need to win there?
In WA, Colin Bartlett’s Liberal government flies high, and as free as a bird; will the looming leadership change in state Labor make a difference?
The NT Labor regime will likely fall as soon as an election is called; and voters in SA are clearly ruing the re-election of Mike Rann, if the 60/40 polls we are consistently seeing are any guide.
And federally…Julia Gillard is in deep and deepening trouble, and I will deal with this in more detail in my next post, but an election this Saturday would exceed 1975 proportions for Labor.
These are opening observations; welcome all! Let the discussions begin!